For the construction industry, conflicting trends result in a mixed-price environment: lack of confidence in the market and increased competition drive prices down, cost pressure in material‑intensive trades persists due to rising prices for key raw materials.
These opposing developments make reliable cost calculations more difficult and require the industry to maintain a cautious and flexible approach to managing projects and investments. Construction prices continued the stability in 2025. Construction prices rose between approximately 3.0 - 3.5 percent over the year. Q1 2026 continued this trend, with expectation of the higher prices over the next couple of quarters, due to the rising oil prices.
Source: Statistisches Bundesamt (Destatis)
Source: Statistisches Bundesamt (Destatis)
During the period from late 2025 to early 2026, the construction industry faced an overall inflationary but highly differentiated cost environment. The most significant driver was markedly higher metal prices, particularly for copper and aluminium, which noticeably increased costs in material‑intensive trades.
Source: Statistisches Bundesamt (Destatis)
Source: Statistisches Bundesamt (Destatis)
The result is a generally tight price environment. Material prices continue to rise slowly, while higher competition had the opposite impact. With energy prices rising again, it is expected that material and equipment prices will follow suit.
What does this mean for our forecasts?
Our baseline scenario, as already presented in the previous market intelligence report for Q1 2025, has risen due to the currently high oil prices and assumes an average price increase of around 5.0 % for construction tenders in 2026. For the years 2027 and 2028, construction prices are expected to rise by approximately 3.0 % per year.
Key Takeaways
Stabilisation meets uncertainty
- The German construction industry was entering a phase of selective stabilisation in 2026, driven primarily by civil engineering, data centre construction and government infrastructure programmes. This stabilisation has been offset by the current geopolitical landscape, causing spiking energy prices with expectations that material prices will follow suit.
- While residential and commercial construction remains slow despite rising permit numbers, public‑sector construction is slowly stabilising. Data centre construction and clean energy infrastructure look strong.
- Material prices are rising, in some cases significantly.
- Business sentiment remains cautious: many companies did not expect a sustainable recovery until 2027 even before the rising energy prices. This sentiment is now turning from cautious to worried. If energy prices continue to rise, expect construction prices to act accordingly.
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