Executive summary
Resilience amidst a wave of uncertainties heading into 2025
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Canada remains steady, with inflation becoming more manageable and interest rates falling. Yet signs of strain are beginning to emerge as the labour market continues to underwhelm and the unemployment rate remains elevated.
Canada’s construction industry, however, has begun to stabilize. Improved confidence and easing liquidity constraints have helped support industry growth for the first time in four quarters. Continued strength in the institutional and governmental sector and recovery in commercial workloads have also bolstered performance, while Ontario’s housing market has begun to show signs of encouragement amidst shortages.
Input cost pressures are also settling. Construction wage growth has softened, albeit skill shortages for select trades exist. Material costs, while still lofty compared to the pandemic levels, have started to recalibrate and machinery and equipment costs are becoming less problematic. Escalation has also eased, but bid prices are still increasing. However, competition is growing which supports commercial tension that could encourage investment decisions and spur more development.
Political events may impact the Canadian economy and its construction industry this year, destabilizing areas of growth. The recent resignation of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has introduced heightened political uncertainty, with potential implications for public investment and overall investor confidence. In the United States, the new Trump administration may see tariffs placed on Canadian exports. This anticipated action and increasing geopolitical tension could damage economic prosperity and place pressure on supply chains and procurement teams.
Despite the uncertainties ahead in 2025, the overall market outlook remains positive.