The US Construction industry’s leading indicators often present varied perspectives on future performance, and recent data continues this trend. However, there are positive signs on the horizon. Dodge Construction Network’s (DCN) construction start figures are linked to the immediate future. They recorded an increase of 4.0 on the month and 1.0 percent on the year in October 2024, respectively, after decreases in September 2024.

The American Institute of Architect/Deltek Architectural Billing Index (ABI), and DCN’s Momentum Index (DMI) show performance at the planning stage. Given the time taken for billings and planning metrics to filter through into actual activity, these impact construction after new start indicators – affecting construction nine to 12 months in the future. They recorded an increase of 4.0 and 1.0 percent on the month and year in October 2024, while the DMI experienced a decrease in planned activity by 5.3 percent on the year in October 2024.

While each indicator is unique, the underlying trends are similar. Q3 2024 was influenced by election uncertainty, and the recent reduction in interest rates may not yet have had a significant impact. As a result, the first half of 2025 might experience some sluggishness due to delayed and deferred investment decisions in 2024.

However, there are growing signs of optimism. Despite the contraction in Q3 2024, the Engineering News Record (ENR) confidence index edged higher to 47 and is trending upwards. Additionally, the Construction Financial Management Association’s (CFMA) confidence index is showing a bullish outlook, with a 9.1 percent increase on the year in Q3 2024. Furthermore, contractors remain upbeat about the next two quarters, with approximately 53 percent of Associated Builders and Contractors (ABC) members expecting their sales to increase in that timeframe.

With confidence recovering, Chief Financial Officers inferring that big firms have persevered through the worst of the current market lull and contractors hopeful about near term prospects, short-term workloads could be supported despite the wider slowdown. The US Construction industry, however, will likely have to endure a period of muted growth before it can notably improve.