Canada’s economic outlook is becoming increasingly unclear. While activity has held firm in recent quarters, signs point to a slowdown ahead as businesses and consumers brace themselves for the potential fallout from the United States’ erratic trade policy.

In the absence of tariffs, Canada’s construction sector data would suggest green shoots of recovery. Yet, geopolitical headwinds are likely to decrease confidence, subdue decision making and impair growth prospects.

The constructions input cost environment was benign as well, with material costs recalibrating from pandemic induced highs and construction labour market slack increasing due to subdued workloads. However, US tariff enactment and Canadian government countermeasures have led to increased volatility, forward purchasing and stockpiling – elevating costs.