Construction market outlook

Short term softening, yet long term growth expected

While short-term fluctuations exist, the long-term trajectory for the US construction industry remains positive. Sustainable practices, digitalization, and workforce adaptation will play pivotal roles in shaping its future.

On balance, the construction sector is less bullish than it once was, with several metrics down.

Despite the Association of Building Contractors (ABC) Construction Backlog Indicator (CBI) recovering slightly in April 2024, increasing marginally to 8.4 months, the CBI is down by 0.5 months when compared to April 2023.

Source: Association of Building Contractors

The AIA/Deltek Architectural Billings Index (ABI) remains in contraction, recording 48.3 in April 2024. Above or below 50 indicates an increase or decrease in architectural billings, respectively, and the ABI has now scored under 50 for 15 consecutive months.

Dodge Construction Network’s (DCN) Momentum Index (DMI) reduced by 1.0 percent on the year in April 2024, although gains were seen on the month, supported by data center planning activity. Construction starts recorded by DCN improved slightly, growing by 6.0 percent on the month in April 2024 - despite the first few months of the year seeing reductions.

Confidence, however, has improved. Engineering News Record’s (ENRs) Confidence Index shot up to 52.0 in Q1 2024, rising by 10 points. The Construction Financial Management Association’s (CFMA) Confidex Index also improved, moving from 96.0 in Q4 2023 to 109.0 in Q1 2024.

The construction market data suggests a softening trend over the next six to nine months. While it does not necessarily indicate reduced activity levels, there will likely be a slower pace of growth. Despite this, optimism remains, and there’s potential for longer-term gains in activity levels. However, cost pressures are expected to persist as activity continues to increase.

Figure 5:

Key construction market metrics - movement (%), index value or months where stated

Latest period

Previous period

ENR Confidence Index

52.0

Q1 2024

42.0

Q4 2023

CFMA Confidex Index

109.0

Q1 2024

96.0

Q4 2023

AIA/Deltek Architectural Billings Index

48.3

April 2024

43.6

March 2024

ABC Construction Backlog Indicator (months)

8.4

April 2024

8.2

March 2024

Dodge Momentum Index

173.9

April 2024

164.0

March 2024

DCN Non-residential Construction Starts (MoY %)

2.0

April 2024

1.0

March 2024

Source: Engineering New Record, Construction Financial Management Assosciation, American Institute of Architects, Associated Builders and Contractors, Dodge Construction Network

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