Not all metrics align with this picture, however. Construction backlogs, as recorded by the Association of Building Contractors, softened for the second time in a row to 8.2 months as of February 2024. Additionally, Dodge Construction Network saw its January 2024 nonresidential construction starts fall by 5.0 percent on the year.

Furthermore, the AIA/Deltek Architectural Billings Index (ABI) suffered another reverse of 45.4 in January 2024 after seeing out 2023 with two thirds of the year in contraction - close to levels last seen in 2021. Above or below 50 indicates an increase or decrease in architectural billings, respectively.

Sentiment is also beginning to waver. Both the Engineering News Record (ENR) Confidence Index and the Construction Financial Management Association’s (CFMA) Confidex Index fell in Q4 2023, indicating that the backlog levels and forecast optimism may not hold in the long term.

Construct Connects Project Stress Index, measuring the volume of pre-construction projects put on hold, delayed, or abandoned over a 30-day period, saw January 2024 rise to multi-year highs. With such extremes of opinion and significant shifts in metrics and expectations, it is important to take a balanced view on the industry’s prospects.

Performance is likely to hover somewhere in the middle - neither leaning towards being extremely strong or extremely weak. Commitment will be present in some areas, but not all, with other sectors and locations pulling back. Variability, volatility and uncertainty will contribute to this, as banking conditions also transition, geopolitical tensions rise and the US election builds in momentum.

For the most part, construction will continue to break ground, albeit at a slower pace than in previous years. The first half of 2024 is likely to be resilient, helped by a robust performance and solid foundations laid in 2023, while growth could well be restricted in the latter half of 2024.