Construction overview
Uneven recovery in UK Construction sectors reflects post-pandemic dynamics
In Q2 2023, there was a 0.3 percent growth in construction output compared to the previous quarter. This growth was attributed to a 0.9 percent increase in repair and maintenance (R&M) output. Conversely, there was a slight decrease of 0.1 percent in new work during the same period. This combination of trends reflects the dynamics within the construction industry, where R&M activities have been experiencing stronger growth compared to new construction projects since the outbreak of COVID-19.
At a sectoral level, infrastructure new work output expanded by 6.1 percent. Other growth areas were non-housing R&M, up by 2.7 percent, and other public new work, by 2.4 percent. In contrast, the private commercial new work output contracted by 3.4 percent. Private new housing and private R&M also performed poorly, both falling by 3.3 percent and 1.3 percent, respectively.
A combination of Brexit, the impact of the pandemic, the conflict in Ukraine, Bank Rate at a fifteen-year high to combat surging inflation and heightened economic and political uncertainty has hampered the momentum of investment in new projects and dampened investor sentiment. Amidst these complexities, the trajectory of sectoral construction output growth and recovery has been characterised by a blend of outcomes.
The infrastructure sector is sustaining its momentum, benefiting from a robust pipeline of ongoing projects, albeit with some rescheduling, particularly evident in the rail and road subsectors. The private housing sector, in contrast, is encountering reduced activity in both new work and R&M, due to the surge in borrowing costs and high inflation.
Figure 3:
Construction output, last 20 years performance, index value 2019 Q4 = 100
The commercial sector bore the brunt of the impact of the pandemic and shifting consumer behaviours. Activity in high street shops remains weak with an output 38.3 percent below its pre-pandemic levels and the entertainment sector output is 21.7 percent below the level of Q4 2019. Conversely, the office sector has shown signs of recovery, propelled by the refurbishment and fit-out of existing office spaces.
While the industrial sector contributes modestly to the overall construction output, its performance has been bolstered by increased online shopping and the relocation of industrial activities. Factory and warehouse activities stand at 52.4 percent and 26.2 percent above pre-pandemic levels of Q4 2019, respectively.
The pursuit of sustainable retrofitting in both private and commercial properties, coupled with a thriving industrial manufacturing facility market and office fit-outs, has surged demand for Mechanical, Electrical, and Plumbing (MEP) trades. This heightened demand has led to an increase in the price of MEP packages, a trend that coincides with a scarcity of skilled labour in the industry.
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