Executive summary
Finding the positives in a turbulent market
Canada’s economic outlook continues to transition downwards. Elevated interest rates have resulted in lower consumer spending and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has fallen as a result.
The construction sector has equally felt the repercussions of high interest rates, particularly in the residential market, which has resulted in lower capital expenditure and a slowdown in project starts.
Not all areas are affected equally, however. Infrastructure investment is growing and industrial and manufacturing workloads are resilient, while many provinces, such as Alberta, continue to weather economic headwinds.
Fortunately, input cost pressures are fading and construction bid prices are easing. This may help unblock decision making on projects that are on hold, or delayed, due to unaffordable construction costs. Shallower demand may also help settle supply chain disruption that has blighted the construction market for several years since the COVID-19 pandemic.
Risks do persist, yet opportunities exist in the construction sector and while economic growth projections have taken a knock back, they are reassuringly hopeful for 2024.
In a nutshell
-0.3%
Quarterly GDP growth as of Q3 2023
-0.7%
Quarter on year construction GVA growth as of Q3 2023
2.5%
Bid price inflation (escalation) estimate for 2024
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